Open Journal Systems

Transition in risks of higher order births in Nepal: a life table analysis

Ramesh Babu Kafle

Abstract

This paper examines declining fertility in a low development setting. Specifically, this paper analyzes transitions in age at first birth and of the length of birth intervals, the variations of the length of birth intervals by selected socioeconomic and demographic factors, and the determinants of the risk of higher order birth in Nepal by using the DHS data. There is very little change in the age at start of fertility schedule but the proportion of women progressing to the next higher order birth from the second, third and fourth births has declined over time. Increases in the median length of higher order birth intervals and decline in the ultimate proportions of women attaining higher order births drive declines in the pace of childbearing and overall fertility level. Controlling for other factors, higher order births are more likely among women who had given a previous birth before the survey period or women who had a female birth compared to women who did not have such births. Significantly, lower hazard ratio of the second birth is observed among women who are more educated, working in non-agriculture sector, from well-to-do households, with higher age at first birth, and whose first child survived during infancy.

Keywords

age at first birth; birth interval; pace of childbearing; relative risk; life table

Full Text:

PDF

References

Acharya LB. (1998). Determinants of fertility in the 1970s and 1990s in Nepal. Contributions to Nepalese Studies, 25 (special issue): 95-108.

Agudelo AC, Bermudez AR, and Goeta AC. (2006). Birth spacing and risk of adverse perinatal outcomes: A meta-analysis. Journal of American Medical Association, 295(15):1809-1823. doi:10.1001/jama.295.15.1809.

Agudelo AC, Bermudez AR, and Norton MH. (2012). Effects of birth spacing on maternal, perinatal, infant, and child health: A systematic review of causal mechanisms. Studies in Family Planning, 43(2): 93-114. doi:10.1111/j.1728-4465.2012.00308.x.

Aryal RH. (1998). Fertility transition in Kathmandu. Contributions to Nepalese Studies, 25 (special issue): 79-93.

Baschieri A. (2004). The second birth interval in Egypt: the role of contraception. S3RI Applications Working Paper A04/05, School of Social Sciences University of Southampton United Kingdom.

Bongaarts J. (1978). A framework for analyzing the proximate determinants of fertility. Population and Development Review, 4: 105-132.

Caldwell JC. (1998). The global fertility transition and Nepal. Contributions to Nepalese Studies, 25 (special issue): 1-7.

Central Bureau of Statistics [CBS]. (2003). Population Monograph of Nepal, Vol. I. National Planning Commission Secretariat, Kathmandu, Nepal.

Das Dangol B, Retherford RD and Thapa S. (1997). Declining fertility in Nepal. Asia-Pacific Population Journal, 12 (1): 33-54.

Fotso JC, Cleland J, Mbreu B, et al. (2013). Birth spacing and child mortality: An analysis of prospective data from the Nairobi urban health and demographic surveillance system. Journal of Biosocial Sciences, 45: 779–798. doi: 10.1017/S0021932012000570.

Kamal A and Muhammad Pervaiz K. (2013). Determinants of marriage to first birth interval in Pakistan. Journal of Statistics, 20: 44-68.

Karki YB and Krishna R. (2008). Factors Responsible for the Rapid Decline of Fertility in Nepal- An Interpretation: Further Analysis of the 2006 Nepal Demographic and Health Survey. Calverton, Maryland, USA: Macro International Inc.

Kim J. (2010). Women’s education and fertility: An analysis of the relationship between education and birth spacing in Indonesia. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 58(4): 739-774. doi:10.1086/649638.

Lee ET. (1993). Functions of survival time. In UNFPA (ed.) Readings in Population Research Methodology, Volume 6 (Advanced Basic Tools), United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA).

Ministry of Health and Population (MOHP) [Nepal], New ERA, and ICF International Inc. (2012)., Nepal Demographic and Health Survey 2011. Kathmandu, Nepal: Ministry of Health and Population, New ERA, and ICF International, Calverton, Maryland.

Ministry of Health and Population (MOHP) [Nepal], New ERA, and Macro International Inc. (2007). Nepal Demographic and Health Survey 2006. Kathmandu, Nepal: Ministry of Health and Population, New ERA, and Macro International Inc.

Ministry of Health (MOH) [Nepal], New ERA, and Macro International Inc. (1997). Nepal Demographic and Health Survey 1996. Kathmandu, Nepal: Ministry of Health and Population, New ERA, and Macro International Inc.

Ministry of Health (MOH) [Nepal], New ERA, and ORC Macro. (2002). Nepal Demographic and Health Survey 2001. Calverton, Maryland, USA: Family Health Division, Ministry of Health; New ERA; and ORC Macro.

Rajaram S, Rao SR, and Pandey A. (1994). Birth interval dynamics in Goa: A parity specific analysis. Demography India, 23 (1-2): 67-81.

Rajbhandari S. (1999). The Impact of Child Death on Birth Interval: A Hazard Model Analysis of Micro Data from Nepal, Working Paper No. 99-20. Department of Economics, University of Colorado at Boulder, Colorado 80309.

Ramesh P. (2006). Determinants of birth interval dynamics in Orissa, India. Paper presented at the European Population Conference 2006 (EPC–2006) on Population Challenges in Ageing Societies, held in June 2006, Liverpool, UK.

Retherford RD and Choe MK. (1993). Statistical Models for Causal Analysis. New York: A Wiley-Interscience Publication, John Wiley and Sons, Inc.

Retherford RD and Thapa S. (2004). Recent trends and components of change in fertility in Nepal. Journal of Biosocial Sciences, 36: 709-734. doi:10.1017/S0021932003006448.

Retherford RD and Thapa S. (1999). The trend of fertility in Nepal, 1961-1995. Genus, 55(3/4): 61-97. doi:10.1016/j.ijgo.2012.07.016.

Retherford RD and Thapa S. (1998). Fertility trends in Nepal, 1977-1995. Contributions to Nepalese Studies, 25 (special issue): 9-58.

Rindfuss RR, Palmore JA, and Bumpass LL. (1987). Analyzing birth intervals: implications for demographic theory and data collection. Sociological Forum, 2 (4): 811-828. doi:10.1007/BF01124385.

Saha UR and Soest AV. (2013). Contraceptive use, birth spacing, and child survival in Matlab, Bangladesh. Studies in Family Planning, 44(1): 45-66. doi:10.1111/j.1728-4465.2013.00343.x.

Sahoo H. (2010).Fertility Decline in Orissa since the 1970s: Transition in conditions of low development. Thesis, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi.

Singh R, Tripathi V, Kalaivani M, et al. (2012). Determinants of birth intervals in Tamil Nadu in India: Developing Cox hazard models with validations and predictions. Revista Colombiana de Estadística, 35 (2): 289–307.

Srinivasan, K, Pandey A, and Rajaram S. (1994). Birth interval differentials in Goa in KB Pathak, UP Sinha and A Pandey (eds.), Dynamics of Population and Family Welfare. Bombay, India: Himalaya Publishing House.

Subedi BP. (1998). Regional patterns of fertility in Nepal. Contributions to Nepalese Studies, 25 (special issue): 145-156.

Suwal JV. (2001). Socio-cultural dynamics of birth intervals in Nepal. Contribution to Nepalese Studies, 28 (1): 11-33.

Tarling R. (2009). Statistical Modeling for Social Researchers: Principles and Practice. Routledge, 270 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10016.

Trussell J, Martin LG, Feldman R, et al. (1985). Determinants of birth interval length in the Phillippines, Malaysia and Indonesia: A hazard-model analysis. Demography, 22 (2): 145-168.


DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.18063/IJPS.2016.02.005
(440 Abstract Views, 249 PDF Downloads)

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


Copyright (c) 2016 Ramesh Babu Kafle

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.